← DASHBOARD

PAWEŁ LEKS

Builder · Investor · Warsaw

WHO BUILT THIS

I'm a builder and investor based in Warsaw.

But GOR has nothing to do with that.

This is a personal project, built in my own time, driven by genuine curiosity about how the world actually works — macroeconomic systems, energy flows, the feedback loops between geopolitics and financial markets. I read everything I can find on it. At some point reading wasn't enough, so I started building.

I've spent years managing product teams and building technology products. I can design systems, define architecture, think through logic end to end. But writing code was always someone else's job — I always had to rely on others to bring things to life.

That changed a few months ago. AI coding tools gave me superpowers I didn't have before. For the first time I could sit down alone, with an idea, and actually ship it. GOR is what came out of that — an obsession with understanding global risk, finally with the tools to act on it.

THE SIGNAL THAT MATTERED

In March 2026, US-Iran tensions escalated to a level that was clearly moving oil markets — but every tool I could find was either too slow (news), too expensive (professional terminals), or too opaque (black-box indices with no methodology). I wanted something that combined satellite data, vessel tracking, OSINT, and market signals into a single number I could check before markets opened.

So I built it. Then it started working.

MAR 19, 2026 · 06:45 UTCVERIFIED HISTORICAL SIGNAL
GOR INDEX  7.65→ D_CRISIS
Iranian strikes confirmed on Ras Laffan LNG complex.
Brent crude reached $119 within hours.
The system crossed 7.5 at 04:05 UTC —
2 hours and 40 minutes before the peak was reached.

HOW IT WORKS

GOR is computed every 5 minutes from six sub-indices, each tracking a different dimension of physical oil supply risk. The composite index determines the current regime — from NOISE through TENSION, ELEVATED, CRISIS, and SHOCK.

NLP NATURAL LANGUAGE
AI scoring of every ingested event for escalation probability and supply disruption impact. 4,500+ events processed since launch.
MARITIME VESSEL INTELLIGENCE
AIS tracking in the Strait of Hormuz. Laden vs. ballast VLCC classification, transit count anomaly detection via z-score.
MARKET PRICE SIGNALS
Brent, WTI, OVX volatility index, and Brent-WTI spread. Backwardation detection as a forward supply stress signal.
SATELLITE THERMAL DETECTION
NASA FIRMS thermal anomaly data cross-referenced against 296 tracked energy facilities across the Gulf region.
INFRASTRUCTURE DAMAGE REGISTRY
Real-time facility damage tracking: confidence-weighted production impact across active and recovering facilities.
MOMENTUM RATE OF CHANGE
Acceleration of the GOR index itself. Detects regime transitions before thresholds are crossed.

SYSTEM STATUS

Loading...

DATA SOURCES

Satellite & Fire
NASA FIRMS
Maritime
AIS WebSocket
Vessel draught
classification
OSINT Channels
TankerTrackers
ELINT News
IntelSlava
IranIntlTV
OSINTdefender
GeoConfirmed
BBBreaking
MiddleEastSpectator
+ 13 more channels
News & Wire
Al Jazeera
BBC
Reuters
TASS
Mehr News
AP
Arab News
Middle East Eye
Oil Price
Markets
Brent (yfinance)
WTI (yfinance)
OVX
Alpha Vantage
Spread analysis
Structured Data
GDELT
NewsAPI
OpenSanctions

WHAT THIS IS NOT

GOR doesn't predict strikes. It reads physical and market signals and converts them into a composite number. It has real blind spots: AIS data goes dark when vessels go dark deliberately; satellite thermal coverage has revisit gaps; OSINT channels can be noisy, delayed, or deliberately manipulated.

When a manual override is active — as it is now for Hormuz — it means the automated signal is being supplemented by human judgment about a situation the algorithm can't fully capture.

This is a tool built by one person in their spare time. Use it accordingly.

GET IN TOUCH

If you're using GOR for research, trading, or have data or feedback to contribute — I'd like to hear from you.